Methodology

The framework in one paragraph

Every suburb is scored on 22 metrics grouped into four pillars: risk & stability, capital growth, yield & cashflow, and forward indicators. Each metric is normalised against the suburb’s peer city, weighted by its historical correlation with 10-year total returns, and combined into a single 0-100 TopBurb Score. The Score is published alongside every underlying metric so you can verify, challenge, or reweight.

The four pillars

1. Risk & Stability (20% weight)

The suburb-level safety filter. These metrics rule out problems before anything else matters.

• SEIFA decile (ABS IRSAD)
• 3-year crime rate trend
• Vacancy rate level and stability
• Bushfire Attack Level (BAL) exposure where applicable
• Flood & coastal risk flags

2. Capital Growth (35% weight)

Long-term price appreciation is where most Australian investor returns come from over 10+ year holds.

• 10-year CAGR (primary)
• 5-year CAGR
• 12-month growth
• Growth consistency score
• Outperformance vs metro median

3. Yield & Cashflow (20% weight)

Income supports holding cost coverage and enables portfolio scaling.

• Gross rental yield
• Net yield (estimated after typical holding costs)
• Rent growth (12-month, 5-year)
• Rent-to-median-price convergence trend

4. Forward Indicators (25% weight)

Leading signals that predict the next phase of the cycle before headline price data catches up.

• Days on Market level and trend
• Demand-Supply Ratio level and trend
• Vendor Discounting level and trend
• Auction clearance rates where available
• Building approval pipeline
• Infrastructure commitments within 2km

Why these weightings

The weightings aren’t arbitrary. They reflect regression analysis of 10-year total returns across Australian capital city suburbs from 2005 to 2025. Growth metrics explain the largest share of long-term return variance, followed by forward indicators, then yield, then risk adjustments.

For investors with a different time horizon or priorities (e.g. pure cashflow focus), the Score can be reconstructed from the underlying data using your own weightings. Every metric is published alongside the Score.

The two category rankings

Each suburb gets two separate rankings within its city:

• Category A: Long-term Growth — weights capital growth and forward indicators more heavily
• Category B: Cashflow Focus — weights yield and net income metrics more heavily

Both categories use the same underlying data, just different weightings. A suburb can rank highly in one and not the other — which is useful information in itself.

Data quality labels

Not every suburb has every metric available. We label each suburb’s data quality:

• FULL (18-22 metrics available) — high confidence in the Score
• GOOD (14-17 metrics) — Score is reliable, minor gaps
• MODERATE (10-13 metrics) — Score is directional, read with care
• LOW DATA (fewer than 10 metrics) — suburb is included in the spreadsheet but not ranked

What we don’t do

• We don’t cherry-pick suburbs. Every residential suburb in the city is included.
• We don’t apply hard filters. We don’t exclude suburbs for being “too affordable” or “too expensive”.
• We don’t hide the methodology. This page is the full story.
• We don’t make forecasts. The Score reflects current and historical data, not predictions.
• We don’t accept payments from developers, buyer’s agents, or marketing partners.

How often the Score updates

Reports are produced monthly. Some underlying metrics update daily (listings, rentals), some monthly (median prices, vacancy), some quarterly (crime), and some only every five years (SEIFA). The Score captures the best available data on the report production date, which is noted on every report.

Why this matters

Existing suburb ranking tools mostly either (a) produce “top 10” lists with opaque methodology, or (b) provide raw data and leave you to build your own framework. Neither works well for serious investors.

TopBurb tries to sit in the middle: a transparent scoring system with full underlying data, updated consistently, applied to every suburb, and published without cherry-picking. That’s the philosophy. This page is the proof.